Saturday, October 11, 2008

Twenty-four (days) and counting

I am a political junkie, and political process is my favorite. I have three or four sites I check every day for polling results, trends, and predictions. As of today, indications are strong for an enormous Democratic victory. I won't bother creating in-post links; all the sites are in the side bar if you'd like to see them, and I do recommend them strongly.

270 to win has Obama at 264 solid EV today, meaning McCain has to win every single swing state to take the election. Nate at 538.com gives Obama a 90% chance of winning as of today, and a 25% chance of a 60-Democrat Senate. Pollster puts 320 EV in the Democratic column.

I know what the GOP will sling these last few weeks. I've seen the emails so nasty that they ought to shame anyone who claims to be an American. The old saying is, "There's many a slip twixt cup and lip," and all that. This thing is far from over.

But one month ago, McCain was LEADING by most accounts. Nine months ago, anyone who thought Sen. Clinton wasn't going to take the nomination was a fool. (And yes, that was my analysis as well. I thought her name recognition, money, organization, and resume made her unbeatable. No one is right all the time.) Two years ago, Sen. Obama was a promising newcomer to the national scene and Dems were just hoping they could make some gains in Congress in the midterm elections.

So the drumbeat of fear and low expectations from the Left really surprises me. I read a post this week saying how proud we could be if Obama lost with honor; I've seen many that simply refuse to believe what their own eyes and the data are telling them. I wonder if it is some form of political shell-shock (I like the old terms). Or maybe it is a form of McClellan-itis whereby the enemy always looks two or three times bigger than he actually is.

I have a long track record as an incurable pessimist and cynic, although I don't think that is accurate. I merely try to see the world as it really is, and for years reality has not been a happy place. I've merely pointed that out. Understand, our country has huge challenges and problems on multiple fronts: financial, economic, and foreign policy are in massive disarray. But politically, things haven't looked this promising for Democrats in many years. This seems to me the time to be upbeat and optimistic. Things are looking good.

4 comments:

Toast said...

Excuse me while I put my eyeballs back in their sockets. Nightshift, the Optimist! Know Hope indeed.

Eric Wilde said...

I think of the times that happened in the early 20th century when FDR became president. FDR was a great man who was given a rare opportunity. Obama may be a great man, too, if he takes advantage of the opportunity history is presenting him.

VMH said...

But one month ago, McCain was LEADING by most accounts.

This is the McCain post-convention bounce. I am not sure I would characterize it as a lead but no doubt the race was very close at that point.

nightshift66 said...

Eric,
FDR was presented with the "opportunities" of the Great Depression and WWII. Heaven forbid that Obama have "opportunities" that large. (Although I suspect he very well may.)